Tokyo Real Estate Market Report

TOKYO REAL ESTATE MARKET REPORT VOL.7

Real Estate Investment Market of Japan Future Possibilities and Issues

1. Overview of Japan’s Real Estate Market

(1) Current Situation in Japan

<Extended Recession and Asset Deflation>
Until the beginning of the ’90s, real estate values in Japan soared higher than the GDP growth. Since the collapse of the bubble economy, this trend has been reversed and real estate values have continued to decline. At present, they have fallen back to the level of 1983. Due to the long-term decline in real estate values, financial institutions are beset with a significant amount of bad loans to process, and this is having a major effect on the general economy. For the Japanese economy to emerge from its current depressed state, it is necessary to overcome this asset deflation.


<The Japanese Government’s Economic Measures and Their Effects>
The Japanese government has taken large-scale efforts to remedy this situation. In addition to issuing a large amount of government bonds, the Bank of Japan is maintaining a financial relief policy of cutting the interest rate for unsecured overnight call money to an effective rate of zero percent, and has completed the funneling of public funds, totaling more than seven trillion yen, to banks. For promoting acquisition of individual houses, a large tax reduction has been implemented. Housing loan deductions have been extended from six years to fifteen years, and there have been some reductions in real estate acquisition tax, registration tax and transfer tax. For the Japanese government, these measures seem to represent the limit to efforts that can be made to stimulate the economy. As a result of these economic stimuli, the Nikkei-225 index, which was less than 14,000 yen at the end of last year, had risen to above 18,000 yen by the month of July, and the contract rate of newly supplied condominium has reached a high level of more than 80%.


(2) Overcoming Asset Deflation

<Reasonable Valuation of Real Estate>
Still, in order to truly overcome asset deflation, conventional economic stimuli alone will not be sufficient. In addition, there is a need for a reasonable valuation of prices for real estate. According to a government’s survey, land prices for the Greater Tokyo Area are near their 1983 levels, and considering that nominal GDP has shown growth rates of 1.9 times during this period, this means that there has been a large, effective drop in land value. In this situation, some international players are investing with the view that now is the best time to buy real estate in Japan. ( See the related story on Section IV.) In the current trend, much of this capital is for risk assumption, but if highly transparent market prices are established on the basis of profit return pricing, general capital will also flow into the real estate investment market, providing the means of overcoming asset deflation.


 

NEXT: 2. System of Real Estate Valuation in Japan


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